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Do the punt or do it? AWS’ latest analysis of the NFL can help fans guess the 4th game call for the second time

Posted on September 9, 2021September 9, 2021 by William

A second guess about whether the NFL coach should go to the game or play in the fourth game is one of the best pastimes to watch the sport. Now, the league is turning to Amazon Web Services and Next Gen Stats to better inform fans and broadcasters’ armchair quarterbacks.

AWS and NFL Announced a new statistic Wednesday is called the NGS Decision Guide, which will be used during the 2021-22 season.

Using a series of machine learning models, the equation focuses on the probability of winning—how much the game will change in each hypothetical event of the outcome—and the probability of transition—the probability of an offensive transition or a 2-point transition.

The broadcaster can show the fans which call is most meaningful based on the data before the game starts, or break it down in the replay analysis.

The NFL and AWS are planning more new advanced statistics for the upcoming season, including:

  • Quarterback expected rushing yards: The 2020 expected rushing yards model is designed to estimate the rushing yards that the ball carrier obtains from the handover. This year’s QB indicator analysis was carried out without a handover, and snapshots were used when the quarterback clearly stated his intention to run.
  • Type of quarterback retracement: Analyzing whether the quarterback falls directly, rolls out of the pocket, is forced to scramble, or participates in a designed run will help to more accurately classify the expected game type of the game call, and provide more information on the trend of the running game call. Reliable analysis.
  • Next Gen Stats big game score: The most important game to watch a week or season is the fun of watching football. This new model scores each game based on three main components ranging from 0 to 100: the probability of winning effect; the bonus points; and the impossibility of playing.

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